How Does the Morbidity Rate Affect the Propensity to Commit Crimes in the Regions of the Russian Federation?

Abstract

The main objective of the study is to find out how the incidence rate affects the propensity to commit crimes in the regions of the Russian Federation. In practice, a negative relationship or an underestimation of a positive one can be observed due to omitted variables, so in more developed areas there may be a higher level of detected morbidity and at the same time a lower level of crime due to the effective work of law enforcement agencies or high opportunity costs for criminals. The paper attempts to solve the problem of omitted variables and potential reverse causality based on the instrumental variable method. The results obtained using this method, taking into account the consideration of regional fixed effects, predict that a 1% increase in the incidence rate leads to an average increase in the crime rate in the regions of the Russian Federation by 1.26%. The results of the work can be useful for explaining the dynamics of the crime rate in different regions, as well as for a more accurate assessment of the opportunity costs of increasing the incidence rate, which in turn can be the basis for making decisions in the field of issues related to healthcare financing.