Methodology for Determining the Strategy of Regional Development Based on the “Path Dependence” Concept

Abstract

A territory development strategy is aimed at socioeconomic transformations of a region, but its implementation is largely predetermined by the socioeconomic patterns of the past (“path dependence” or “rut effect”). Therefore, the search for the ways to overcome "path dependence" becomes relevant. The author analyzes the relevant literature, formulates a "rut effect" concept, and overviews the methods for overcoming the effect. A technique has been developed for determining the ways to change the trajectory of the previous development. Methodology approbation has been carried out using an indicator "an average number of employees in the full range of organizations" for the period 2009–2019 for 85 regions of the Russian Federation for 107 types of activities. The study identifies 29 branches of current specialization for the Perm Territory and determines directions for the regional development using the author’s research findings on the technological connectivity of the branches.