Homicide Rates in the Regions of the Russian Federation: Local Problem or “Contagious Phenomenon”
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24866/2311-2271/2024-3/1239Keywords:
mortality rate, homicide, criminality, spatial regression, fixed effects models, data-driven managementAbstract
The article addresses the problem of modeling the number of murders per 1000 population in the regions of the Russian Federation taking into account the spatial dependence between the regions. The authors conduct a comprehensive analysis of various socio-economic factors affecting the level of murders using modern methods of spatial econometrics. The main result of the study is the identification of a significant spatial spillover between the regions, which can be explained by the direct influence of the dynamics of crime indicators in neighboring regions on the considered region. The authors also identify factors that have a positive or negative impact on the number of murders, such as unemployment, poverty, education, air pollution, etc. Based on the obtained results, the authors offer practical recommendations for developing effective strategies to combat violent crime in the regions of Russia. The article is of interest to specialists in the fields of econometrics, criminology, sociology and public safety management.
Downloads
References
Cezary A. Kapuscinski, John Braithwaite and Bruce Chapman. Unemployment and Crime: Toward Resolving the Paradox // Journal of Quantitative Criminology. 1998. Vol. 14. No. 3. Р. 215–243. — DOI 10.1023/A:1007540007803.
Mair C., Sumetsky N., Dougherty M. [et al.]. Do Changes to the Alcohol Retail Environment Reduce Interpersonal Violence? // Current Epidemiology Reports. 2022. Vol. 9. No. 4. Р. 282–289. — DOI 10.1007/s40471-022-00304-9.
Dong B., Egger P.H., Guo Y. Is poverty the mother of crime? Evidence from homicide rates in China // PLoS ONE. 2020. Vol. 15. No. 5. e0233411. — DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0233411.
Демидова О. Методы пространственной эконометрики и оценки эффективности государственных программ // Прикладная эконометрика. 2021. № 64. С. 107–134. — DOI 10.38063/2219-5003.2021.64.107-134.
Бадов А.Д. Региональные особенности преступности в России // Наука. Инновации. Технологии. 2019. № 1. С. 77–90.
Mohammadi A., Bergquist R. Kramshahlou G.F. [et al.]. Homicide rates are spatially associated with built environment and socio-economic factors: a study in the neighbourhoods of Toronto, Canada // BMC Public Health. 2022. № 22. P. 1482. — DOI 10.1186/s12889-022-13807-4.
Aparecida da Silva Lizzi E., Garrido MVG., Xavier LDS. [et al.]. Homicides of black people in Brazil: A study of different regions, using general-izedadditive regression models-with a geo-spatial component // Geospat Health. 2021. № 16 (1). — DOI 10.4081/gh.2021.966.
Wang L., Lee G., Williams I. The Spatial and Social Patterning of Property and Violent Crime in Toronto Neighbourhoods: A Spatial-Quantitative Ap-proach // ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2019. № 8. P. 51. — DOI 10.3390/ijgi8010051.
Сикач К.Ю. Картографирование преступности как один из инструментов борьбы с ней: мировой и российский опыт // Геополитика и эко-геодинамика регионов. 2016. № 2 (12). С. 63–72.
Смирнов В.В., Мулендеева А.В. Комплексный анализ Российской преступности и судимости // Национальные интересы: приоритеты и безопасность. 2019. № 15 (2). С. 359–375. – DOI 10.24891/ni.15.2.359.
Свиридова В.Ю. Статистический анализ преступности в России: пространственные и временные эффекты: ВКР. — М.: НИУ ВШЭ, 2018.
Age Dependency Ratios and Crime Rates: A New Variation on an Old Theme. U.S. Departament of Justice, Office of Justice Programs. — URL: https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/age-dependency-ratios-and-crime-rates-new-variation-old-theme (дата обращения: 30.03.2023).
Matthew Thomas Clement, Nathan W. Pino, Jarrett Blaustein. Homicide Rates and the Multiple Dimensions of Urbanization: A Longitudinal, Cross-National Analysis // Sustainability. 2019. Vol. 11. No. 20. Р. 5817. — DOI 10.3390/su11205817.
Lance E. Hannon. Extremely Poor Neighborhoods and Homicide // Social Science Quarterly. 2005. Vol. 86. No. 5. Р. 1418–1434. — DOI 10.1111/j.0038-4941.2005.00355.x
Sampson R.J., Laub J.H., Wimer C. Does Marriage Reduce Crime? A Counterfactual Approach to Within-individual Causal Effects // Criminology. 2006. № 3. P. 465–508. — DOI 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2006.00055.x
Bourne P.A. Does marriage explain murders in a society? In what way is divorce a public health concern? // Emerg Ment Health. 2014. № 16 (2). — P. 298–307.
Набиева Х.Н. Анализ влияния уровня образования на ключевые показатели социального развития общества // Вестник ПИТТУ имени академика М.С. Осими. 2020. № 3 (16). С. 79–86.
Why is crime higher in cities than in the countryside? 2021. — URL: https://tomorrow.city/a/crime-in-cities (дата обращения 13.03.2022).
Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, Lutz Sager. Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime // Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. 2020. Vol. 7. No. 3. Р. 555–585. — DOI: 10.1086/707619.
Shrira I., Wisman A., Webster G.D. Guns, Germs, and Stealing: Exploring the Link between Infectious Disease and Crime // Evolutionary Psychology. 2013. № 11 (1). P. 270–287. — DOI: 10.1177/147470491301100116.
John J. Donohue, Steven Levitt. The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime over the Last Two Decades // American Law and Economics Re-view. 2020. Vol. 22. No. 2. Р. 241–302. — DOI 10.1093/aler/ahaa011
Gauthier D.K., Bankston W.B. Gender Equality and the Sex Ratio of Inti-mate Killing // Criminology. 1997. Vol. 35. No. 4. Р. 577–600. — DOI 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1997.tb01225.x.
Регионы России. Социально-экономические показатели. 2021. — URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/210/document/13204 (дата обращения 20.11.2023).
